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ー August 19, 2009 ー LNG world market big wave with China move

August 19, 2009 - LNG world market big wave with China move -
This is edited from the Japanese Version only by eliminating Japanese phrases.

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The biggest ever export contract for Australia
- $50b gas project from China - ABC 081809


Japanese energy news brief


2009年8月19日分 ー 世界のLNG市場が価格と生産地で激動の時代に ー

最近のエネルギー情報は,中国を中心にLNG市場が大荒れである。まず,オーストラリアのゴーゴン・ガス田,埋蔵量が40兆立方フィートとも言われている世界屈指の規模であるが,このゴーゴン・ガス田とLNGプラントを,オーストラリア政府との合意に基づいて推進しているエクソンモビルと,中国国家石油ペトロチャイナが,410億ドル,総額3兆8,900億円相当の供給契約を結んだというものである(注1)。

このオーストラリアのゴーゴン・ガス田の開発は,2005年にエクソンなどへの開発への合意が成立しているが,最終的なオーストラリア政府の開発承認は今年,2009年末とされている。この承認から生産開始までは5年かかると言われているが,最近,LNGに関する東京ガスの動きが激しく,2009年7月末には,このガス田に1%資本参入,年間150万トンのLNG輸入の意志決定をしたと報じられた(注2)。中国はこれを大幅に上回る。

更に東京ガスは,将来のLNG大国,中国の市場を開拓すべく,プラント建設請負参入の意志決定を行った(注3)と報じられている。そのために,上海などの設備の緊急措置を買って出ている。一方中国は,世界の資源株の買いあさりに没頭しており,中国国家石油の関連企業,中国石油化工が,スイスのアダックス石油の買収手続き完了,買収費用は中国企業として最大の,7,200億円と報じられている(注4)。

ただ,世界のLNG市場は,中東,インドネシア,オーストラリアなどの開発気運で,供給余剰の感じが強くなり,ここ数年,2012年までは価格が低迷すると言われており,実際に,過去,百万Btu当たり20ドルまで高騰したものが,現在では5ドルまで急落している。LNG最大の生産国であるカタールは,オーストラリアの新しいプロジェクトとの競合もあり,年3,800万トンのLNGを,アジア向けに切り替える方向にある。

LNGの世界の計画生産能力は,年1億3,000万トンに対して,太平洋地区での長期計画に基づかないLNG需要は,年8,000万トンで,明らかに供給過剰の様相を呈している。なおここで,複雑なLNG関係の単位換算を整理しておくと,1tcf(1兆立方フィート)の天然ガスは,28bcm(280億立方m)で,LNGにすると,21mt(2,100万トンLNG),1,030,000百万Btu,180百万バレル石油相当,である。

天然ガスの世界の総量問題だが,どれを見ても資料が古くてどうにもならない。もう10年前,2000年の資料は全然使い物にならなくなっている。それほど天然ガスの探査には,この10年間で劇的な変化があった,と言うことだ。10年前は,天然ガスは,旧ソ連圏,中東,インドネシアが主体であったが,私が言ってきたように,天然ガスは,何処でも,幾らでも出る,と言うつもりで臨む方がよい。

要するに,世界の何処が掘りやすく,何処に探査の資金を注ぎ込むのがもっとも確実か,と言う見方で行くべきだ。中途半端な規模では駄目で,資本の濃密な集中度を考えるべきだ。国の政策もあるだろう,エクソンモビルやシェブロンを,心おきなく受け入れたオーストラリアの今後の動きを注目する,インドネシアのように,天然ガスに資源ナショナリズムを振りかざすような国は,その面で,まず落ちて行くだろう。

Petrochina contracted with Exxson for Australia Gogon gas field
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/news/main/20090819AT2M1900U19082009.html
Tokyo Gas shares and import LNG from Gorgon gas field
http://www.ecool.jp/press/2009/07/post-289.html
Tokyo Gas eyeing China market for LNG plant construction
http://www.business-i.jp/news/sou-page/news/200908150022a.nwc
China petro firm done big M&A for Swiss petro firm
http://www.nikkei.co.jp/kaigai/asia/20090818D2M1803618.html


Main contents

●LNG surplus to reach a record, Wood Mackenzie says

Liquefied natural gas producers may earn smaller margins as low demand and new export plants lead to a record surplus and lower prices, Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd. said. New projects in Qatar, Yemen and Indonesia may reach capacity next year, said Frank Harris, global head of LNG at the Edinburgh-based firm. Ventures planned for 2015-20, including those helmed by ConocoPhillips, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Woodside Petroleum Ltd., may be forced to sell the fuel for less as supplies exceed consumption.



(注)A (1) 090819A LNG,tehrantimes,(2) title: LNG surplus to reach a record, Wood Mackenzie says,(3) http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=200957,(4) SINGAPORE (Bloomberg),(5) liquefied natural gas,LNG,(6) Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd.,(7) Qatarカタール,(8) Yemen,(9) Indonesia,(10) Frank Harris, global head of LNG,(11) ConocoPhillips,(12) Royal Dutch Shell Plc,(13) Woodside Petroleum Ltd.,(14) Sanford C. Bernstein,(15) cleaner-burning fuel,(16) million British thermal units,(17) Chevron Corp.,(18) WheatstoneJOGMEC,(19) Gorgon,(20) Santos,(21) Conoco,(22) Origin,(23) BG Group Plc,(24) Inpex Corp.,(25) Shell,(26) Australia,(27) Papua New Guinea,(28) JPMorgan Chase & Co.,(29)






今日の参考資料

●090819A LNG,tehrantimes
世界のLNGは記録的な余剰と価格下げに遭遇している
LNG surplus to reach a record, Wood Mackenzie says
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090819A.htm

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=200957

最近の関連資料

●090813A Indonesia, pennenergy
インドネシアの石油担当大臣がドンギのガスは国内使用で
Indonesian oil minister wants Donggi gas for domestic market
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090813A.htm
●090714C Indonesia, thejakartapost
インドネシアのドンギLNGで日本側が合意の延長を促している
Japan buyers allow time for talks over LNG plant
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090714C.htm
●090623C Indonesia, The Jakarta Post
インドネシアのドンギ-スレノLNGで三菱は輸出にこだわる
Consortium insists on need to export Donggi-Senoro's LNG
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090623C.htm
●090318B Indonesia, The Jakarta Post
インドネシアのLNGから日本などが他の市場を模索
RI’s LNG diverted to other markets
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090318B.htm
●090217C Indonesia, The Jakarta Post
インドネシアが日本とLNG輸出で契約を延長
LNG RI signs deal with Japan on gas sales extension
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090217C.htm


●PetroChina clinches Gorgon gas deal

Chances are high that few have ever heard of the Gorgon gas field, named after a dreaded she-monster in Greek mythology. But it absolutely deserves a place in the modern lexicon of energy, trade and power. The Gorgon field, off the northwest coast of Australia, is at the heart of a blockbuster, $41 billion deal signed Tuesday between two of the world's biggest companies: Exxon Mobil and PetroChina.

Coast Australia waiting government approval



(注)B (1) 090819B China, marketwatch,(2) title: PetroChina clinches Gorgon gas deal,(3) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/petrochina-clinches-key-gorgon-gas-deal-2009-08-18,(4) Commentary Supply contract with Exxon Mobil carries long-term implications,By MarketWatch,SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch),(5) Gorgon gas field,(6) Exxon Mobil,(7) PetroChina,(8) OPEC member Indonesia,(8) Greater Gorgon,(9) Royal Dutch Shell,(10) Chevron,(11) map source: http://www.ecool.jp/press/2009/07/post-289.html,(12) photo source: www.abc.net.au/.../2009/07/30/2640643.htm,(13)


今日の参考資料

●090819B China, marketwatch
中国国家石油がオーストラリアのLNGを購入する契約成立
PetroChina clinches Gorgon gas deal
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090819B.htm

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/petrochina-clinches-key-gorgon-gas-deal-2009-08-18

最近の関連資料

●090815C China, miningweekly
中国の海外石炭の輸入が飛躍的に伸びている
Chinese demand for foreign coal soars
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index090815C.htm
●081229C China, chinadaily
中国,燃料税改革,エネルギーの里程標
Fuel tax reform an energy milestone
http://my.reset.jp/adachihayao/index081229CC.htm






























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PGA02435@nifty.com

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